Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x990f…a69c other 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%31W / 54L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$20
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$25
other 17% $0
sports 11% $0
economics 10% +$2
politics 8% +$43
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 15 -4.5% -13.6% 40% 7% -10.9%
≤90d 29 -4.8% -13.8% 38% 3% -9.4%
all 85 -2.1% -11.4% 36% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 4% -9.4%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses31 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)85 / 87
History coverage447d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 62¢ 63¢ $148 $150 +$2 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 84¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $147 +$1 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $146 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $255 −$8 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $85 −$11 -13%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $84 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $175 −$7 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $182 +$6 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $13 +$2 +12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $152 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $151 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $78 −$7 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $158 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $158 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $7 −$4 -54%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $105 −$2 -2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $108 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $121 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $177 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $329 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $577 +$47 +8%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $904 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $2,276 +$2 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $1,034 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $8 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $1,034 +$2 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 19 $1 $0 +7%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $22 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 17 $3 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 17 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15? Aug 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 15 $4 $0 -11%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 14 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $148 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $100 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $147 18h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $39 43h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $22 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $124 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $146 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $84 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $57 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $141 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 21¢ $55 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $67 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $44 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $35 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 39¢ $26 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $26 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $88 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $107 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $109 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $18 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $18 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $84 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $84 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $168 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $175 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $129 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.96 · official $149.94 (match) · 302 history records