Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:18:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9912…5d4a crypto 77 markets active 10d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$17,255 (+7%) realized +$17,255 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 36L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,016per market
Trades / day109.4pace
Fees−$759est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$1,314
crypto 18% −$8,920
sports 15% +$19,851
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 70 +24.0% +12.2% 49% 47% -4.0%
≤90d 70 +24.0% +12.2% 49% 47% -4.0%
all 70 +24.0% +12.2% 49% 47% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.2% 47% -4.0%
10% +1.4% 39% -13.2%
15% ← realistic here -8.4% 30% -21.6%
20% -17.4% 27% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$2,011) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,813 vs −$1,372 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17,255
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$759
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 77
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3,016
Trades / day109.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $237 −$225 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $773 +$268 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $264 −$250 -95%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $507 −$31 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $526 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $260 +$8 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 19 $102 −$9 -9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $509 +$726 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $890 −$611 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $1,153 −$1,100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $5,227 −$2,366 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $675 −$500 -74%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $512 −$441 -86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6,136 −$1,431 -23%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1,519 +$1,110 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20,318 +$10,199 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $471 −$450 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $1,717 −$1,093 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $952 −$908 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $887 +$1,421 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$15 +75%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7,057 +$1,516 +22%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15,882 +$1,995 +13%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $617 −$600 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $15,257 +$12,597 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $1,056 +$190 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $674 +$223 +33%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND England vs. Croatia: O/U Jun 17 $2,543 +$3,231 +127%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,016 +$1,110 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $525 +$187 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $1,572 −$177 -11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,587 −$2,605 -73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $5,057 −$195 -4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25,359 −$25,088 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $310 −$150 -48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,294 −$2,248 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,017 −$34 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,064 −$217 -4%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $507 +$472 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $506 +$287 +57%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $538 +$481 +89%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $1,512 +$561 +37%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1,016 +$1,203 +118%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10,090 +$2,875 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $2,777 +$648 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $3,208 +$390 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $1,377 −$914 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $237 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $243 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $260 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $513 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $264 10d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $475 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $529 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $322 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $204 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $248 10d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $92 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $260 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $634 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $292 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $257 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $52 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $42 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $13 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $388 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $658 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $195 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $743 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $733 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $825 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $214 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $577 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2,334 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2,160 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $151 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 408 history records