Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9912…cf20 crypto 392 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$159 (-2%) realized −$159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate64%252W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$223
7 days−$154
14 days−$175
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$285
sports 0% +$35
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -6.8% -15.6% 79% 6% -13.0%
≤30d 257 -7.8% -16.6% 67% 24% -13.9%
≤90d 392 -7.8% -16.5% 64% 31% -13.0%
all 392 -7.8% -16.5% 64% 31% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 31% -13.0%
10% -24.5% 22% -21.3%
15% -31.8% 17% -28.9%
20% -38.5% 12% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses252 / 140
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)392 / 392
History coverage40d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 392 Trades
no open positions (109 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $43 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $66 −$7 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $59 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $161 −$21 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $87 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $121 −$120 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $120 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $111 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$2 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $95 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $45 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 851 history records