Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9913…301d crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$143 (-4%) realized −$133 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,516now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$855
7 days+$855
14 days+$847
30 days+$804
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$950
crypto 9% −$156
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -20.3% -27.9% 29% 29% +45.5%
≤30d 50 -21.7% -29.1% 32% 22% +36.0%
≤90d 50 -21.7% -29.1% 32% 22% +36.0%
all 50 -21.7% -29.1% 32% 22% +36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.1% 22% +36.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.9% 20% +23.0%
15% -42.1% 18% +11.1%
20% -47.8% 18% +0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +50% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$7 · ×9.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.6 per $1 lost it wins $4.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$1,516
Realized−$133
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage29d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $1,001 $988 −$13 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 26¢ 26¢ $531 $521 −$10 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 85¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $651 +$982 +151%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $648 −$22 -3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 +15%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$7 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 29 $8 −$6 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 23 $2 $0 +2%
Will "Janice STFU - Drake" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? May 21 $4 $0 -10%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 21 $2 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 21 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 21 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 20 $29 −$14 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 20 $3 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 20 $1 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 20 $1 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 20 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 20 $2 +$2 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 20 $1 $0 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 20 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 20 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 20 $2 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $1 2m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $1 2m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $6 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $1 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,515.53 · official $1,515.53 (match) · 664 history records