Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:37:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9913…7891 world 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%21W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$6
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$1
other 16% −$9
sports 13% $0
politics 12% −$2
economics 8% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.4% -11.7% 25% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 29 -1.4% -10.8% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 61 +4.6% -5.4% 33% 5% -9.6%
all 63 +3.0% -6.8% 33% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 5% -9.9%
10% -15.7% 3% -18.6%
15% -23.9% 3% -26.4%
20% -31.3% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage526d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $12 −$1 -6%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $37 −$4 -12%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 22 $42 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $90 +$2 +3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 -19%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $9 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $142 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $81 −$1 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $74 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $47 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $76 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $37 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $97 +$2 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $21 +$3 +15%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $33 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $39 −$1 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $83 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $135 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $76 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 17 $1 $0 -36%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $74 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $71 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $32 1h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $32 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $32 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $35 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $35 22h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $15 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $17 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $1 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $36 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $40 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.67 · official $0.00 · 289 history records