Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:59:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9914…e0e3 crypto 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-2%) realized −$12 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate92%88W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$8
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$5
other 14% −$31
weather 13% +$1
tech 4% +$2
economics 2% $0
world 1% −$8
sports 0% +$1
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 30 +5.3% -4.7% 97% 7% -10.2%
≤90d 71 +2.6% -7.2% 97% 7% -9.5%
all 96 -2.1% -11.4% 92% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 10% -10.2%
10% -19.9% 8% -18.8%
15% -27.6% 4% -26.7%
20% -34.7% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses88 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)96 / 104
History coverage154d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 99¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 99¢ 36¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-64%)
Will Charity Clark win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? No 72¢ 98¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+36%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 94¢ 37¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 76¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 05 $1 $0 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or below on June 3? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 +$2 +220%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on May 24? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 24? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15? May 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 15? May 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 14? May 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? May 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 9? May 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 8? May 08 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6? May 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 4? May 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 04 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 27? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 04 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $45 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 6d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 13d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 14d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 15d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 16d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 19d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 20d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 3? BUY No 97¢ $2 22d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or below on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $10 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 22d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 22d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $10 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 23d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.36 · official $86.31 (match) · 234 history records