Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:18:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9915…eae1 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$57 (-5%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$135
sports 44% +$61
crypto 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -13.3% -21.5% 41% 32% -15.5%
≤30d 41 -13.3% -21.5% 41% 32% -15.5%
≤90d 41 -13.3% -21.5% 41% 32% -15.5%
all 41 -13.3% -21.5% 41% 32% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 32% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 27% -23.5%
15% -35.9% 15% -30.9%
20% -42.2% 7% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage3d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $50 +$4 +7%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +42%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $35 −$19 -53%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -40%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 26 $45 −$5 -11%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $25 −$7 -26%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 United States? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -24%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $80 +$1 +1%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $30 +$20 +64%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $30 +$7 +24%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $3 $0 -5%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$4 -42%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 25 $20 +$7 +35%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $146 −$47 -32%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $8 −$3 -31%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 24 $55 −$54 -97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $20 −$17 -84%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 $0 -2%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $65 +$6 +10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$14 +28%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30 +$19 +63%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $29 +$3 +11%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $41 −$6 -14%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $21 +$13 +63%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 +$1 +22%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $16 +$4 +26%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$5 -25%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 +$6 +41%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $32 −$18 -57%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 $0 -1%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $30 −$1 -4%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $20 +$9 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 59¢ $49 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 9h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 93¢ $40 9h
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 9h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 10h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 10h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) SELL United States 87¢ $40 10h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY United States 97¢ $45 10h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 56¢ $19 10h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 10h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 75¢ $25 10h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 United States? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 United States? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 11h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 United States? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 49¢ $19 11h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 11h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 11h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 97¢ $81 11h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 96¢ $80 11h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $50 11h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $37 11h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Netherlands? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 12h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Netherlands? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.62 · official $49.62 (match) · 100 history records