Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x9915…2ec3 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$33 (+11%) realized +$34 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$44
sports 6% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -24.6% -31.8% 53% 53% +1.2%
≤30d 15 -24.6% -31.8% 53% 53% +1.2%
≤90d 15 -24.6% -31.8% 53% 53% +1.2%
all 15 -24.6% -31.8% 53% 53% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 53% +1.2%
10% -38.3% 47% -8.5%
15% -44.3% 40% -17.3%
20% -49.7% 13% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $82 +$10 +12%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 +$15 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $22 +$9 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 +$26 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan - Who wins the t Jun 17 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $22 +$5 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.33 · official $47.33 (match) · 25 history records