Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:13:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x9916…54dc other 280 markets active 1h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,926 (+3%) realized +$2,096 · open −$170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%134W / 114L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$509
7 days+$814
14 days+$1,604
30 days+$1,650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$4,500
crypto 27% +$120
other 24% −$3,465
tech 8% +$200
politics 4% −$186
sports 3% +$737
culture 0% −$25
finance 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +15.2% +4.2% 73% 64% +7.0%
≤30d 19 +16.5% +5.4% 58% 53% +19.5%
≤90d 50 -5.3% -14.3% 56% 52% +13.7%
all 248 -14.4% -22.6% 54% 43% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 43% -6.7%
10% -30.0% 31% -15.6%
15% -36.8% 22% -23.8%
20% -43.0% 15% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$70 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$1,256
Realized+$2,096
Unrealized−$170
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses134 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions32
Markets (closed)248 / 280
History coverage195d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 68¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 51¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Yes 35¢ 36¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
France to score first vs. Norway? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 45¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 30¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 Over 30¢ 28¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 24¢ 24¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 20¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 32¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $50 $27 −$23 (-46%)
Michael Olise: 2+ assists Yes 16¢ 20¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+25%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 30¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 28¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $153 +$50 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,025 +$188 +18%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,044 +$164 +8%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 23 $505 +$92 +18%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$142 +140%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$106 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$137 +67%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 18 $118 −$8 -7%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $100 +$163 +163%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $38 −$36 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $205 +$895 +437%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 05 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $4,653 +$1,564 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 26 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $473 +$47 +10%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $49 −$35 -71%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 18 $578 +$68 +12%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 17 $26 −$26 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $50 −$25 -49%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 14 $404 +$89 +22%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $20 +$6 +30%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $100 −$62 -62%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $100 +$85 +85%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 08 $115 −$115 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $100 +$59 +59%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $3,299 +$898 +27%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 08 $140 −$80 -57%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 06 $100 +$58 +58%
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Na Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Apr 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "Regime Change" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $30 +$15 +52%
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $60 +$46 +77%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $100 +$23 +24%
Will Trump say "Obliterated" or "Obliteration" during Address to the N Apr 02 $100 +$25 +25%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $39 +$21 +55%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $3,570 +$869 +24%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $394 +$99 +25%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 30 $614 +$271 +44%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $31 1h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists BUY Yes 16¢ $0 1h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $20 1h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists BUY Yes 16¢ $11 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 1h
Denzel Dumfries: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Denzel Dumfries: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $31 1h
Michael Olise: 2+ assists BUY Yes 16¢ $8 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $51 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $20 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 1h
France to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 72¢ $151 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,213 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,025 15h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $2,003 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,255.53 · official $1,255.55 (match) · 907 history records