Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9917…d385 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$128 (-33%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$125
sports 27% −$3
world 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-50.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 16 -61.3% -65.0% 19% 19% -72.2%
all 34 -45.1% -50.3% 26% 26% -55.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.3% 26% -55.1%
10% -55.1% 26% -59.4%
15% -59.4% 26% -63.3%
20% -63.4% 24% -66.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage95d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 31¢ 32¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 36¢ 36¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 31 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 31 $15 −$14 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 31 $10 +$8 +80%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 23 $28 −$28 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 23 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 23 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 23 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 23 $8 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 20 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 19 $9 +$8 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 19 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Mar 19 $4 +$5 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 17 $4 +$6 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 17 $9 +$11 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $37 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $63 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 18¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $15 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $18 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $10 80d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $10 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $10 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $10 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $0 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.50 · official $98.50 (match) · 87 history records