Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
99 0x9922…9003 sports 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$104 (+4%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%35W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156
7 days+$37
14 days−$42
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$10
other 34% +$14
crypto 12% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +22.7% +11.0% 54% 46% -7.0%
≤30d 48 +16.3% +5.3% 50% 44% -3.8%
≤90d 74 +11.5% +0.9% 47% 41% -5.8%
all 74 +11.5% +0.9% 47% 41% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 41% -5.8%
10% -8.8% 38% -14.8%
15% -17.6% 36% -23.0%
20% -25.7% 34% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$23 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses35 / 39
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 77
History coverage33d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $56 +$29 +53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$35 -34%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$28 -54%
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Fritz Jun 17 $17 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -50%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 +$43 +85%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$5 -15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$3 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$14 -27%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $188 −$94 -50%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $82 +$50 +61%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$16 +105%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 +$66 +185%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$6 -21%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $41 +$70 +172%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 +$67 +165%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$18 +89%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $46 +$48 +105%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $10 +$13 +126%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $101 −$100 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $56 −$56 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $51 −$22 -43%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $56 +$59 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $117 −$86 -74%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $41 −$17 -40%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 +$40 +78%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 30 $26 $0 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $1 +$1 +119%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 28 $36 −$14 -40%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $20 +$32 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $15 −$2 -13%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Zakharova vs Karolina Muchova May 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel May 25 $21 −$18 -89%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 −$12 -77%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 +$26 +84%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $20 +$53 +259%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $31 +$45 +148%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $81 −$19 -23%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Andrea Pellegrino vs Lloyd Harris May 20 $31 +$21 +70%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $51 +$11 +22%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 18 $41 $0 -1%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 18 $35 +$51 +147%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 90¢ $85 47m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $56 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 36¢ $67 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 20¢ $23 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $51 2h
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Fritz SELL Fritz 100¢ $25 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 9h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $30 9h
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Fritz BUY Fritz 69¢ $17 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 83¢ $94 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over $1 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $104 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $46 24h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 43h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $106 43h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $61 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $38 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $98 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $92 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.07 · official $28.07 (match) · 203 history records