Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9923…20ab other 78 markets active 2d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-22%) realized −$41 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate21%15W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$58
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$4
other 42% −$43
politics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -41.5% -47.1% 17% 16% -44.2%
≤30d 72 -29.0% -35.8% 21% 19% -33.0%
≤90d 72 -29.0% -35.8% 21% 19% -33.0%
all 72 -29.0% -35.8% 21% 19% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.8% 19% -33.0%
10% -41.9% 19% -39.4%
15% -47.5% 18% -45.3%
20% -52.7% 18% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses15 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)72 / 78
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jules Koundé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 40¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+69%)
Will Argentina record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will France record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 22 $1 +$1 +77%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -69%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -34%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -26%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 $0 +23%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $2 $0 -15%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 $0 -46%
Son Heungmin: 4+ shots Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $8 −$5 -63%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $2 −$2 -96%
Czechia to win the second half? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +149%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $4 −$3 -72%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4 +$4 +95%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$1 -66%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2 +$7 +362%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -15%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $3 −$1 -38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 +$3 +169%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$12 +234%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +116%
Will Nico Paz be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +201%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 $0 -5%
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -17%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $1 38h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 38h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 1¢ $0 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Son Heungmin: 4+ shots BUY Yes 35¢ $3 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $3 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 2¢ $0 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $3 4d
Czechia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 18¢ $1 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $2 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.05 · official $13.05 (match) · 167 history records