Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:42:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

99
0x992c…0523
crypto · 28 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$147 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$146 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$146
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage224d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 1 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$85
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 12 $168 −$63 -38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 12 $44 −$21 -48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $306 −$66 -22%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 03 $115 +$124 +107%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Apr 13 $254 −$58 -23%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $91 −$87 -96%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $87 +$3 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 20 $88 +$2 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 19 $89 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 18 $89 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Feb 06 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 02 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? Jan 31 $51 +$49 +96%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $9 −$5 -49%
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 20 $53 −$4 -8%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $71 −$47 -66%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 15 $123 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 11 $56 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 6? Jan 06 $61 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 5? Jan 05 $90 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 11? Dec 11 $86 +$4 +4%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $46 −$26 -58%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 02 $67 +$3 +4%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 31 $44 +$6 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% +$12
world 25% −$127
other 6% −$28
sports 3% −$1
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $24 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $53 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $42 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? SELL Yes 62¢ $143 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY Yes 76¢ $183 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? SELL Yes 58¢ $97 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 21¢ $81 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY Yes 70¢ $123 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY Yes 28¢ $114 8d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 50¢ $0 29d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 50¢ $25 29d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 50¢ $9 29d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 50¢ $13 29d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 50¢ $18 29d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 50¢ $7 29d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 50¢ $23 29d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 35d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 41¢ $19 37d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? SELL $60k 36¢ $20 59d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $60k 53¢ $0 84d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $60k 53¢ $29 84d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY BNK FEARX 39¢ $3 88d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $3 104d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $91 104d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $91 104d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $87 106d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? SELL $60k 75¢ $87 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -43.1% -48.5% 0% 0% -45.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 25% -13.4%
≤90d 7 -31.9% -38.4% 14% 14% -18.7%
all 27 -12.0% -20.4% 52% 19% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 19% -15.1%
10% -28.0% 15% -23.2%
15% -35.0% 7% -30.6%
20% -41.3% 7% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.41 · official $0.41 (match) · 81 history records