Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x992f…7c97 crypto 342 markets active 1h ago coverage 354d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$459 (-1%) realized −$459 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate94%321W / 20L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$1,380
crypto 44% +$147
other 10% +$772
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 14% -9.4%
≤30d 37 -2.7% -12.0% 81% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 101 -0.8% -10.2% 93% 2% -9.4%
all 341 -0.9% -10.4% 94% 7% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 7% -10.4%
10% -19.0% 2% -19.0%
15% -26.8% 2% -26.8%
20% -34.0% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$173 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

354d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$459
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses321 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)341 / 342
History coverage354d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 341 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$49 +474%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? May 30 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 25? May 25 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 24 $103 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 23 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 22? May 22 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 21? May 21 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 19? May 19 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 18? May 18 $107 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 17 $105 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? May 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 14? May 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 13 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 10 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 9? May 09 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 8? May 08 $103 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $106 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $107 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $107 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $106 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $106 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $106 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $106 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $106 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $106 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $106 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $106 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $105 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $105 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $105 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $104 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $104 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $104 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.75 · official $106.75 (match) · 693 history records