Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9931…d95b sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$302 (-27%) realized −$310 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$315
7 days−$336
14 days−$333
30 days−$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$401
other 8% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -36.6% -42.6% 26% 26% -39.3%
≤30d 24 -32.2% -38.7% 29% 29% -38.9%
≤90d 24 -32.2% -38.7% 29% 29% -38.9%
all 24 -32.2% -38.7% 29% 29% -38.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 29% -38.9%
10% -44.6% 29% -44.8%
15% -49.9% 25% -50.1%
20% -54.8% 21% -55.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$31 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$310
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage8d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners Over 47¢ 56¢ $29 $34 +$5 (+18%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 60¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+6%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 53¢ 56¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$43 +146%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $115 +$37 +32%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $46 −$13 -28%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 −$18 -35%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $29 +$20 +69%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $48 +$32 +66%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 17 $107 −$107 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $19 −$1 -8%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $90 −$11 -12%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $48 −$3 -7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$44 +88%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$9 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$3 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $29 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $29 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $103 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 65¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 62¢ $115 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 29¢ $33 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $33 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $50 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 38¢ $46 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under $1 40h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $49 42h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 42h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $29 44h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $17 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $17 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $19 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $31 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $49 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 20¢ $18 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 46¢ $44 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 62¢ $44 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $62 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 81¢ $62 3d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $48 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $46 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 3d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 40¢ $50 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $166.77 · official $166.70 (match) · 54 history records