Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:35:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x9931…ea8c sports 1037 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18,836 (-12%) realized −$18,867 · open +$31
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%520W / 514L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,363
7 days+$2,272
14 days+$2,955
30 days+$3,313
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$21,970
world 25% +$1,135
politics 6% +$481
crypto 3% +$1,304
other 2% +$304
culture 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -3.9% -13.1% 62% 42% -5.9%
≤30d 301 -5.0% -14.1% 47% 39% -5.4%
≤90d 880 -7.7% -16.5% 46% 41% -5.4%
all 1034 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 45% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 45% -20.0%
10% -17.4% 43% -27.6%
15% -25.4% 41% -34.6%
20% -32.7% 38% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$101 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$18,867
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses520 / 514
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1034 / 1037
History coverage127d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1034 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Season Fuego 39¢ 100¢ $20 $51 +$31 (+156%)
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Dplus 37¢ 36¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Walczaki 62¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $1,052 +$64 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $1,536 +$112 +7%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $3 +$1 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,596 +$17 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $34 −$8 -24%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $1,168 +$808 +69%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $299 +$111 +37%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $39 −$39 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $27 +$24 +86%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $14 +$4 +25%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $13 +$28 +206%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $35 +$16 +46%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $11 +$38 +349%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $7 +$2 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $32 −$32 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $24 −$23 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $18 −$18 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $37,222 +$97 +0%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $38 +$12 +33%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $84 +$116 +138%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $48 −$47 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,611 +$29 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,417 +$71 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$22 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,324 +$53 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $13 +$8 +60%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,194 +$147 +12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $84 −$84 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,487 +$119 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +85%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,229 +$21 +2%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$12 +138%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,201 +$228 +19%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $35 +$16 +47%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $37 +$13 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $872 +$475 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY Dplus 37¢ $19 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $917 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1,536 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 70¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 70¢ $70 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 68¢ $65 1h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 30¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Fuego vs Contra (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY Fuego 39¢ $20 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2,586 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under $0 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 100¢ $1,976 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $410 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $299 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 59¢ $106 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 59¢ $177 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 59¢ $65 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 59¢ $101 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 59¢ $0 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 59¢ $29 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 59¢ $100 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 60¢ $300 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 58¢ $290 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 58¢ $0 5h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 58¢ $0 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 6h
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY QoR 76¢ $39 6h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 62¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 65¢ $34 11h
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr BUY ex-MANA eSports 80¢ $14 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P BUY Walczaki 32¢ $7 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.73 · official $70.73 (match) · 2957 history records