Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
99 0x9933…dc6c sports 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$102 (-5%) realized −$80 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%65W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$299
7 days+$359
14 days+$193
30 days+$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$138
other 38% +$99
crypto 7% −$15
world 1% +$215
weather 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +117.0% +96.3% 42% 42% +13.4%
≤30d 104 +20.0% +8.6% 33% 31% -9.2%
≤90d 169 +11.3% +0.7% 38% 36% -9.9%
all 169 +11.3% +0.7% 38% 36% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 36% -9.9%
10% -8.9% 34% -18.5%
15% -17.7% 31% -26.4%
20% -25.8% 28% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses65 / 104
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions4
Markets (closed)169 / 191
History coverage180d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 15¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $36 +$25 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$31 +154%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $36 +$24 +67%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $36 −$4 -12%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 +$50 +164%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 −$5 -33%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $35 +$69 +200%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $21 +$213 +1034%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $31 +$20 +67%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $37 −$36 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
France to score first vs. Norway? Jun 26 $41 −$39 -95%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 +$46 +75%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -66%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 +$1 +93%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? AND Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Alger Jun 23 $4 +$268 +6718%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $84 −$83 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? AND Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Jun 20 $6 −$1 -18%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $43 −$42 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$46 +226%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $66 +$46 +69%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $82 +$24 +30%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 −$1 -14%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$15 -29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 12¢ $15 36m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 86¢ $52 37m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 33¢ $20 38m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL No 78¢ $60 38m
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 26¢ $20 41m
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL No 87¢ $59 45m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 14¢ $5 47m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 15¢ $15 48m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $20 50m
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $36 58m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $30 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $15 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $81 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 12¢ $10 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 17¢ $15 3h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 33¢ $10 3h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 39¢ $10 3h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 40¢ $10 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw BUY 11¢ $12 8h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $104 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $233 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No $5 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 10¢ $15 21h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 14¢ $1 21h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 13¢ $4 21h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $10 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 16¢ $4 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 62¢ $51 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $31 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.74 · official $9.74 (match) · 442 history records