Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
99 0x9934…e13c politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,950per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$15
politics 0% $0
other 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 5 +0.7% -8.9% 80% 0% -8.9%
all 7 +0.7% -8.9% 71% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage147d
Avg bet$1,950
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 18 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 23 $37 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 26 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 09 $15,337 −$15 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Mar 09 $40 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $38 19d
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 35d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $37 35d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $36 60d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $37 87d
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $38 87d
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $37 104d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $15,322 104d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15,337 104d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.98 · official $37.98 (match) · 15 history records