Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9934…f654 crypto 91 markets active 6d ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$107 (-6%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate79%60W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$94
other 29% −$1
crypto 12% −$12
economics 2% $0
politics 2% +$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 22 -4.3% -13.4% 95% 0% -10.7%
all 76 -2.4% -11.7% 79% 9% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 9% -14.9%
10% -20.2% 5% -23.1%
15% -27.9% 5% -30.5%
20% -35.0% 5% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses60 / 16
Open positions15
Markets (closed)76 / 91
History coverage536d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 97¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? Apr 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 25 $6 $0 +0%
Blackhawks vs. Islanders Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Mar 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 24 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Mar 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Mar 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in January? Feb 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in January? Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in January? Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Feb 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? Feb 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 29 $10 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Thunder Dec 23 $1 $0 +14%
Panthers vs. Utah Dec 23 $2 $0 -2%
Clippers vs. Suns Nov 06 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 06 $2 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Lakers Nov 06 $17 +$13 +75%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $3 $0 +1%
Thunder vs. Clippers Nov 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Bucks vs. Raptors Nov 05 $31 +$20 +64%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 04 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 04 $20 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in September? Oct 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 25 $5 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Sep 25 $18 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 30 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 30 $3 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 30 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 5d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 5d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 30d
Will Solana reach $150 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 53d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 53d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 53d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 53d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 53d
Will Solana reach $150 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 85d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? BUY No 100¢ $6 85d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 85d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 85d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 85d
Blackhawks vs. Islanders BUY Islanders 64¢ $1 85d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 111d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.43 · official $33.43 (match) · 426 history records