Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
99 0x9934…3bc8 world 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$4
crypto 7% −$2
other 5% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
politics 1% −$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -28.8% -35.6% 0% 0% -35.6%
≤30d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 57% 14% -7.4%
≤90d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 57% 14% -7.4%
all 17 -9.6% -18.2% 47% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 6% -9.5%
10% -26.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -33.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -39.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage454d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 87¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $4 −$1 -29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $51 +$3 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $15 +$3 +19%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can May 06 $1 $0 -38%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +1%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Apr 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 23 $6 −$2 -28%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 29 $13 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $53 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 13¢ $0 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $16 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $27 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $8 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $51 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $4 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 10d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 11d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $41 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 12d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $4 359d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? BUY No 93¢ $7 399d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 424d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 424d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 424d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.07 · official $53.07 (match) · 58 history records