trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -28.8% | -35.6% | 0% | 0% | -35.6% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -0.7% | -10.1% | 57% | 14% | -7.4% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -0.7% | -10.1% | 57% | 14% | -7.4% |
| all | 17 | -9.6% | -18.2% | 47% | 6% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.2% | 6% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -26.0% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -33.2% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -39.7% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 87¢ | 87¢ | $53 | $53 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 16 | $4 | −$1 | -29% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 14 | $51 | +$3 | +5% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $15 | +$3 | +19% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 11 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 10 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 14 | $7 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can | May 06 | $1 | $0 | -38% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | May 06 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? | Apr 25 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? | Apr 24 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? | Apr 23 | $6 | −$2 | -28% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 19 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? | Apr 16 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? | Mar 29 | $13 | $0 | -3% |