Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:03:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x9935…0ac5 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized −$1 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$12
politics 19% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +27.4% +15.2% 100% 50% +18.4%
≤30d 6 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 33% -15.5%
≤90d 6 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 33% -15.5%
all 6 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 33% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 33% -15.5%
10% -27.0% 17% -23.6%
15% -34.1% 17% -31.0%
20% -40.5% 0% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage27d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $28 $31 +$4 (+14%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $23 +$2 +9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $33 +$15 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $27 −$7 -24%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $23 +$5 +22%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 31 $28 −$5 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.74 · official $80.74 (match) · 40 history records