Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9935…a6b4 sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$50 (-4%) realized −$72 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%39W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$19
14 days+$20
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$62
other 13% −$9
tech 4% −$2
world 1% $0
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +21.4% +9.8% 52% 50% -7.1%
≤30d 77 +12.1% +1.5% 51% 49% -15.4%
≤90d 77 +12.1% +1.5% 51% 49% -15.4%
all 77 +12.1% +1.5% 51% 49% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 49% -15.4%
10% -8.2% 49% -23.5%
15% -17.1% 48% -30.8%
20% -25.2% 42% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses39 / 38
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions5
Markets (closed)77 / 82
History coverage16d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 30¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-85%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-84%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 14¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Benjamin Bonzi 22¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 47¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 59¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -83%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $22 −$22 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$1 -5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $43 −$10 -24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $79 +$34 +44%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $73 −$6 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $23 +$24 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $129 −$77 -60%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $13 −$12 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 +$6 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $33 +$35 +108%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $51 −$3 -6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $29 +$21 +74%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $6 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +96%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $18 +$13 +70%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $4 +$3 +71%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 −$1 -20%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $23 −$18 -79%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7 +$9 +118%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $30 −$2 -8%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $3 +$6 +179%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $12 +$10 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 10 $12 −$1 -4%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $4 +$5 +106%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $2 +$9 +375%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $8 +$6 +76%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $10 +$8 +76%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +93%
Will France vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Jun 08 $25 +$2 +6%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $9 +$7 +76%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $13 +$5 +39%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $4 +$3 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$3 +56%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2 +$1 +57%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $3 +$3 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 53m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 57m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 2h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $3 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 14¢ $3 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $5 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $3 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $3 35h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $15 36h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 63¢ $20 39h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $21 39h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 14¢ $13 40h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 23¢ $21 40h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 81¢ $20 41h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 86¢ $21 41h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $42 41h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 88¢ $8 41h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 91¢ $30 41h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $48 41h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 93¢ $26 41h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 93¢ $35 41h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 33¢ $67 41h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 88¢ $10 41h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $33.59 (match) · 261 history records