Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x993b…deda other 406 markets active 2h ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,833 (-2%) realized −$1,911 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%205W / 159L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$114est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$5,063now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$386
7 days−$495
14 days−$283
30 days−$1,016
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$1,269
world 26% −$542
politics 12% −$150
sports 10% −$305
crypto 8% −$1,039
tech 3% +$102
finance 2% +$198
economics 2% +$18
culture 1% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -3.9% -13.0% 55% 46% -13.5%
≤30d 132 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 45% -14.3%
≤90d 238 -5.3% -14.3% 55% 41% -12.5%
all 364 -1.9% -11.2% 56% 41% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 41% -13.3%
10% -19.7% 26% -21.6%
15% -27.5% 17% -29.2%
20% -34.6% 11% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$75 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$5,063
Realized−$1,911
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses205 / 159
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions42
Markets (closed)364 / 406
History coverage568d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 66¢ 64¢ $395 $378 −$17 (-4%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $282 $280 −$2 (-1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 74¢ 88¢ $238 $280 +$42 (+18%)
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 95¢ $159 $246 +$88 (+55%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $156 $221 +$65 (+42%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 40¢ 38¢ $236 $221 −$15 (-6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 70¢ 62¢ $246 $221 −$25 (-10%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 52¢ $239 $221 −$18 (-7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $198 $194 −$4 (-2%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $210 $188 −$22 (-11%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $172 $175 +$3 (+2%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 82¢ 92¢ $154 $174 +$20 (+13%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 64¢ $182 $152 −$30 (-16%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 76¢ $152 $151 −$1 (-1%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 44¢ 50¢ $126 $146 +$19 (+15%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 25¢ $140 $125 −$14 (-10%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 74¢ 72¢ $127 $125 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 72¢ $126 $123 −$3 (-2%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 90¢ 93¢ $116 $120 +$5 (+4%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $99 $116 +$17 (+17%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 33¢ 30¢ $111 $102 −$10 (-9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 66¢ 91¢ $66 $91 +$25 (+38%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $82 $87 +$5 (+6%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $66 $82 +$16 (+25%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $81 $82 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $253 +$18 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $145 +$55 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$81 +83%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $179 +$21 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $104 +$36 +34%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $167 +$33 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $165 +$35 +21%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $205 −$8 -4%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $263 +$20 +8%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $187 +$22 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $94 +$15 +16%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 16 $77 +$15 +19%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $177 −$50 -28%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $23 −$6 -25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $15 +$3 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $79 +$9 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +17%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $26 −$13 -49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $69 +$8 +12%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $277 −$274 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $43 −$2 -6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $194 −$130 -67%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $135 −$34 -25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $206 −$43 -21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $197 −$89 -45%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $268 −$15 -6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $224 −$97 -43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $160 −$55 -34%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 15 $132 +$6 +5%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $42 −$3 -6%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $205 +$19 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $241 −$40 -17%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $191 +$109 +57%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $35 +$3 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $164 −$40 -24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $118 −$116 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $57 −$56 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $145 −$144 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $533 −$46 -9%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $187 −$94 -50%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $207 +$49 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$21 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$6 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $80 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$45 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$31 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $153 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 87¢ $92 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $9 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $7 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $4 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $1 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $2 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $2 2h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 65¢ $32 2h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 65¢ $30 3h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 65¢ $2 3h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 66¢ $66 3h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 67¢ $136 3h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 67¢ $68 4h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 66¢ $64 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $12 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $8 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $8 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $8 5h
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? SELL No 63¢ $93 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $199 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $82 5h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $283 5h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 6h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 70¢ $139 6h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $70 6h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 69¢ $3 6h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 69¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,062.56 · official $5,063.19 (match) · 3030 history records