Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:28:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x993d…e6e5 politics 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% $0
politics 38% −$1
tech 10% $0
crypto 9% $0
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -0.0% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage114d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $175 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $87 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 30 $87 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $87 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $88 $0 +0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $88 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $88 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $88 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $88 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $87 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $87 14h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $87 2d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $87 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $87 11d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $87 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $51 26d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $2 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $21 27d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $12 27d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $87 30d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $87 30d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 38d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 38d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $87 40d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 40d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 40d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $87 46d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $87 46d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 50d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 51d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $88 68d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $88 68d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $88 70d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $88 71d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 73d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $88 74d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $88 78d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $88 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records