Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
99 0x993e…44b4 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 304d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,707 (-72%) realized −$2,705 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$60
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$439
politics 42% −$1,587
sports 3% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-45.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.2% -8.5% 50% 50% +27.5%
≤30d 6 +1.2% -8.5% 50% 50% +27.5%
≤90d 6 +1.2% -8.5% 50% 50% +27.5%
all 10 -39.3% -45.1% 30% 30% -91.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.1% 30% -91.4%
10% -50.3% 30% -92.2%
15% -55.1% 30% -93.0%
20% -59.5% 30% -93.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$302 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$2,705
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage304d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $47 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +55%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $30 +$21 +70%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$10 -63%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$60 +146%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Deal" 25+ times during events with UK Prime Minister o Sep 18 $1,587 −$1,587 -100%
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? Sep 09 $1,714 −$321 -19%
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? Sep 01 $145 −$145 -100%
2025 August second hottest on record? Aug 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $48 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 1h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $47 5h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $6 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $15 7h
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 7h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $14 26h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 26h
Will Trump say "Deal" 25+ times during events with UK Prime Minister o BUY Yes 49¢ $1,587 273d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $276 282d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? SELL No 24¢ $276 282d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? BUY No 84¢ $985 283d
Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31? BUY No 48¢ $145 294d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? SELL No 58¢ $145 294d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? BUY No 53¢ $132 297d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 297d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? SELL Yes 48¢ $131 297d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? BUY Yes 52¢ $143 297d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? SELL Yes 51¢ $143 298d
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $177 304d
2025 August second hottest on record? BUY Yes $20 304d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.22 · official $125.22 (match) · 32 history records