Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

99
0x993e…7c69
world · 123 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$100 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$84 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$72
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses31 / 74
Open positions18
Markets (closed)105 / 123
History coverage350d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 18 History 105 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 25¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 30¢ $1 $6 +$4 (+394%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-52%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 66¢ 65¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-13%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 7¢ 13¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+86%)
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-73%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-65%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? No 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 28-30 ET? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations in 2025? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 +$7 +206%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May? May 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? May 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in May? May 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 24 $2 +$3 +149%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May? May 24 $2 +$2 +88%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 24 $12 +$9 +71%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 24 $23 +$11 +50%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $10 +$6 +66%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 17 $1 +$2 +353%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 12 $5 +$25 +456%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -97%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 14 $5 +$4 +72%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of January? Apr 14 $22 −$14 -63%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 06 $8 +$8 +98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 8? Mar 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 05 $9 −$9 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 2-8? Mar 04 $6 −$5 -75%
Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Mar 03 $4 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 03 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 03 $10 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 03 $6 −$5 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 03 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 03 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 03 $4 +$4 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 03 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 03 $4 +$11 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 03 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 03 $2 +$7 +342%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 62% −$34
crypto 18% −$81
finance 6% +$6
other 5% +$42
economics 4% −$14
tech 4% −$8
politics 2% −$11
sports 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election BUY No 53¢ $5 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $5 1h
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $3 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 6h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 38h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 5d
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 16d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 16d
Will Syria recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 16d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 18d
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 18d
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 18d
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 18d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in May? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +52.9% +38.4% 50% 50% +112.9%
≤30d 15 +41.6% +28.1% 47% 47% +20.0%
≤90d 23 +25.6% +13.6% 39% 39% +10.4%
all 105 -15.4% -23.5% 30% 27% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 27% -18.3%
10% -30.8% 27% -26.1%
15% -37.5% 27% -33.3%
20% -43.6% 24% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.89 · official $71.91 (match) · 423 history records