Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T07:11:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x993f…c9bf world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 339d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%20W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$14
14 days−$31
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$7
world 22% −$31
other 17% +$4
economics 11% +$1
crypto 3% −$12
culture 3% $0
tech 2% +$7
finance 2% +$7
sports 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.7% -14.6% 25% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 20 -8.1% -16.9% 10% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 35 -3.5% -12.7% 31% 3% -9.9%
all 58 -2.1% -11.4% 34% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 2% -9.8%
10% -19.9% 2% -18.4%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

339d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses20 / 38
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage339d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $63 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $28 −$11 -40%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $139 +$2 +2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $68 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $130 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $68 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $69 −$3 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $70 −$1 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $180 −$17 -10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $85 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $85 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $137 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $95 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $84 $0 -0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 26 $132 +$7 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $129 +$4 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $131 −$3 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $125 +$7 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 18 $38 +$10 +28%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $373 +$1 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $1,403 −$1 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $638 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $638 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $84 $0 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 31 $75 −$6 -8%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 24 $90 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July? Jul 24 $90 −$1 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $62 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 23 $66 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 23 $89 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 23 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 23 $9 $0 -1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 22 $89 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 22 $89 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $63 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $63 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $24 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $74 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $74 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $40 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $68 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $64 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $64 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $68 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $68 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $68 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $13 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $47 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $23 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $42 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $15 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $66 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $17 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $19 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $33 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $1 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $67 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $70 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.32 · official $57.38 (match) · 225 history records