Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:23:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
99 0x9940…44fb other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 717d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$249 (+1%) realized +$934 · open −$685
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate63%43W / 25L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$807now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$124
14 days+$156
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$538
sports 3% +$31
world 2% +$74
crypto 0% +$1
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 20 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 24 -15.7% -23.8% 83% 0% -8.7%
all 68 -4.1% -13.3% 63% 24% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 24% -8.1%
10% -21.6% 19% -16.9%
15% -29.2% 16% -24.9%
20% -36.1% 15% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.23 per $1 lost it wins $6.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

717d coverage
Net worth$807
Realized+$934
Unrealized−$685
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses43 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage717d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trezeguet: 4+ goals + assists No 99¢ 54¢ $1,490 $805 −$685 (-46%)
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 57¢ 43¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Álex Grimaldo: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $1,490 +$15 +1%
Anthony Valencia: 3+ goals Jun 21 $1,490 +$15 +1%
Justin Kluivert: 4+ goals + assists Jun 20 $1,490 +$15 +1%
George Hirst: 3+ goals Jun 20 $1,491 +$15 +1%
Tete Yengi: 3+ goals Jun 19 $1,491 +$15 +1%
Evidence Makgopa: 3+ goals Jun 18 $1,491 +$15 +1%
Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals Jun 17 $1,492 +$15 +1%
Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals Jun 17 $502 +$5 +1%
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals Jun 16 $502 +$5 +1%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 15 $506 +$11 +2%
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $502 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $502 +$5 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $490 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $490 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Costa Rica? Jun 10 $191 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Málaga CF 3 - 3 UD Las Palmas? Jun 10 $302 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Armenia 1 - 3 Moldova? Jun 09 $490 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $188 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Vitality (BO1) Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Whitney Tilson win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 18 at 5 PM ET? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? Apr 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Mar 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $350 +$82 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 14 $16 +$20 +122%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 11 $8 +$3 +39%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX (BO3) Dec 04 $3 +$4 +108%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 02 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Nov 28 $2 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Nov 28 $1 +$4 +245%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3600 and $3700 on August 4? Aug 14 $1 +$7 +614%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 16–23? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump positive favorability on Day 100? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on May 2? May 22 $1 +$2 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $83000 on Mar 14? Apr 11 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin above $89,000 on March 14? Apr 11 $6 −$1 -11%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Mar 12 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17? Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 20? Dec 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? Dec 16 $1 $0 +15%
MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? Dec 16 $1 $0 +11%
Dogecoin above $0.40 on November 29? Dec 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Friday? Nov 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana above $200 on November 15? Nov 29 $11 +$2 +15%
Unrealized gains tax passed before election day? Nov 12 $1 $0 +0%
Senate control after 2024 election? Nov 12 $1 $0 +0%
2024 October hottest on record? Nov 12 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trezeguet: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,490 1h
Álex Grimaldo: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,490 17h
Anthony Valencia: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,490 27h
Justin Kluivert: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 99¢ $1,490 42h
George Hirst: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,491 2d
Tete Yengi: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,491 2d
Evidence Makgopa: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,491 3d
Francisco Conceição: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1,492 4d
Martin Ødegaard: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $502 5d
Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $502 5d
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $506 6d
Exact Score: Haiti 3 - 1 Scotland? BUY No 99¢ $502 8d
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 0 Switzerland? BUY No 99¢ $502 8d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $490 10d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 South Africa? BUY No 99¢ $490 10d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Costa Rica? BUY No 99¢ $191 11d
Exact Score: Málaga CF 3 - 3 UD Las Palmas? BUY No 99¢ $302 11d
Exact Score: Armenia 1 - 3 Moldova? BUY No 99¢ $490 12d
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Northern Ireland? BUY No 99¢ $188 13d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Norway? BUY No 99¢ $20 14d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 14d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 14d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 14d
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 14d
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 76d
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $350 152d
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 168d
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? BUY No 40¢ $7 168d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) BUY Spirit 45¢ $16 192d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $8 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $807.25 · official $807.25 (match) · 146 history records