trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -8.3% | -17.1% | 0% | 0% | -17.2% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +6.7% | -3.5% | 55% | 36% | -10.6% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -7.0% | -15.9% | 50% | 36% | -11.7% |
| all | 15 | -6.5% | -15.4% | 53% | 33% | -11.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.4% | 33% | -11.6% |
| 10% | -23.5% | 20% | -20.1% |
| 15% | -30.9% | 7% | -27.8% |
| 20% | -37.7% | 0% | -34.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 93¢ | $62 | $62 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $52 | $52 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $46 | $46 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 22 | $36 | −$5 | -14% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $35 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | Jun 14 | $3 | +$1 | +33% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Jun 14 | $28 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $29 | +$5 | +18% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 31 | $67 | −$4 | -6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | -14% |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | +36% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | May 31 | $1 | $0 | +15% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 08 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Bitway FDV above $50M one day after launch? | May 08 | $2 | +$1 | +28% |
| Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? | Feb 27 | $4 | $0 | +1% |