Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:30:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x994b…5077 crypto 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$144 (-3%) realized −$149 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate35%25W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% +$10
crypto 8% −$116
politics 3% −$59
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 52 -27.5% -34.4% 42% 33% -10.2%
≤90d 52 -27.5% -34.4% 42% 33% -10.2%
all 71 -31.5% -38.1% 35% 28% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.1% 28% -17.0%
10% -44.0% 24% -24.9%
15% -49.4% 24% -32.2%
20% -54.4% 18% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$2,521
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses25 / 46
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage316d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 71¢ 70¢ $1,635 $1,627 −$7 (-0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? No 92¢ 93¢ $882 $894 +$12 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 19 $1,518 +$6 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -36%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +56%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 10? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +13%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 10 $1 $0 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +160%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $100 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $100 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $100 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $100 33h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $100 33h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 90¢ $72 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $72 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 90¢ $99 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 90¢ $99 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 93¢ $142 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $142 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 92¢ $78 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $71 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 93¢ $97 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 93¢ $15 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 94¢ $100 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $217 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? BUY No 91¢ $180 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $180 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $5 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $4 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $37 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $24 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $8 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $100 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $100 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $279 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $180 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $180 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $76 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,521.42 · official $2,521.42 (match) · 245 history records