Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:28:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x994c…7221 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$16 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate39%21W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$6
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% $0
world 3% −$7
other 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +2.7% -7.1% 33% 28% -11.3%
≤30d 54 +4.8% -5.2% 39% 30% -10.0%
≤90d 54 +4.8% -5.2% 39% 30% -10.0%
all 54 +4.8% -5.2% 39% 30% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 30% -10.0%
10% -14.3% 28% -18.6%
15% -22.6% 20% -26.4%
20% -30.1% 19% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses21 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage12d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$5 +446%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$18 +831%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$27 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$72 +677%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 04 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 04 $7 +$4 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.97 · official $5.87 (match) · 159 history records