Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x994f…f39d crypto 1307 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,424 (+2%) realized +$1,424 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate73%1091W / 406L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day82.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$262
other 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 385 -48.4% -53.3% 38% 21% -32.8%
≤30d 1497 -4.3% -13.4% 73% 20% -14.2%
≤90d 1497 -4.3% -13.4% 73% 20% -14.2%
all 1497 -4.3% -13.4% 73% 20% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 20% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 12% -22.5%
15% -29.2% 8% -29.9%
20% -36.2% 6% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$24 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,424
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1091 / 406
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1497 / 1307
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$50
Trades / day82.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1497 Trades
no open positions (403 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $74 −$74 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $62 −$62 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $62 −$62 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $62 −$62 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $54 −$54 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $180 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $162 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $170 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $177 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $170 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $162 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $179 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $144 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $151 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $156 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $190 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $161 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $158 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $141 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $147 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $116 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $136 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $121 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $117 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $112 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $75 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $83 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $75 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $81 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $88 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $79 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $81 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $62 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $69 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $92 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records