Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
99 0x9950…6d78 world 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$912 (+12%) realized +$979 · open −$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%23W / 25L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$641now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$244
14 days+$954
30 days+$954
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$469
other 28% +$412
politics 5% +$67
tech 3% −$61
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -4.6% -13.7% 39% 35% -3.4%
≤30d 48 +39.6% +26.3% 48% 38% +2.2%
≤90d 48 +39.6% +26.3% 48% 38% +2.2%
all 48 +39.6% +26.3% 48% 38% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.3% 38% +2.2%
10% ← realistic here +14.2% 31% -7.5%
15% +3.2% 21% -16.5%
20% -6.9% 12% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +86% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$21 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.91 per $1 lost it wins $2.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$641
Realized+$979
Unrealized−$67
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses23 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)48 / 60
History coverage10d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 73¢ 96¢ $219 $287 +$68 (+31%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $115 $147 +$32 (+28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $157 $135 −$22 (-14%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $72 $31 −$40 (-56%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 3¢ $80 $12 −$68 (-85%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $13 $7 −$7 (-51%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $25 $2 −$24 (-93%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? No 7¢ 1¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-85%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $150 +$56 +37%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $41 +$12 +29%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 26 $6 −$4 -69%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $49 −$25 -50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 26 $20 −$3 -16%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 25 $442 +$147 +33%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $186 −$2 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 25 $184 $0 +0%
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? Jun 25 $38 +$15 +39%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $202 +$28 +14%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 24 $42 −$37 -88%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $59 −$2 -3%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? Jun 24 $1 $0 +49%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? Jun 24 $216 −$88 -41%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? Jun 24 $39 +$43 +110%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 24 $238 +$101 +42%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 23 $63 −$18 -29%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $143 +$22 +16%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 22? Jun 22 $20 +$11 +52%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 22 $72 −$11 -16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $49 −$34 -70%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 21 $56 −$43 -77%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $177 +$238 +134%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $141 −$47 -33%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $14 −$2 -14%
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -27%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 21 $92 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $290 −$85 -29%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $556 −$22 -4%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 19 $61 +$13 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $28 +$9 +31%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $276 −$14 -5%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $1,234 +$90 +7%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% an Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 18 $78 +$2 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $104 +$136 +131%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $42 −$16 -37%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 18 $2 $0 +8%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $9 +$307 +3504%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $594 +$170 +29%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $18 +$17 +96%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $6 −$4 -64%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $65 +$20 +31%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $28 −$12 -43%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $160 +$16 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $33 −$23 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $221 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 55¢ $192 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 12¢ $53 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 7¢ $70 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $80 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $82 9h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 96¢ $11 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 10¢ $22 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 8¢ $8 21h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $184 21h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $186 21h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $184 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $35 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $66 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $184 29h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 38¢ $75 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $641.34 · official $641.34 (match) · 325 history records