Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9952…9cba world 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,813 (+2%) realized +$410 · open +$1,403
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate58%33W / 24L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,390per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$16,152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$673
7 days+$5,766
14 days+$5,766
30 days+$4,063
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$4,563
politics 17% −$861
culture 2% −$1,461
other 0% −$67
crypto 0% −$20
sports 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.7% -4.4% 67% 33% +8.4%
≤30d 16 -12.5% -20.8% 44% 25% +0.7%
≤90d 50 -20.9% -28.4% 54% 32% -12.2%
all 57 -10.3% -18.9% 58% 39% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 39% -8.6%
10% -26.6% 26% -17.3%
15% -33.7% 12% -25.3%
20% -40.2% 12% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$1,461) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$441 vs −$575 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$16,152
Realized+$410
Unrealized+$1,403
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses33 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)57 / 62
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,390
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $6,135 $7,008 +$873 (+14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 37¢ 38¢ $3,339 $3,476 +$138 (+4%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 88¢ 88¢ $2,769 $2,759 −$10 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 18¢ 22¢ $1,376 $1,688 +$312 (+23%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 86¢ $1,130 $1,221 +$91 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,806 −$358 -20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 17 $1,790 −$526 -29%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 +$20 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $11,971 +$124 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $1,279 +$67 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $12,199 +$6,439 +53%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,732 +$463 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $596 +$383 +64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 24 $300 −$4 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $144 −$7 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $182 −$13 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $191 −$157 -82%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 23 $150 −$40 -27%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $2,357 −$2,314 -98%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 21 $79 +$6 +7%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $1,091 −$1,084 -99%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $2,124 −$2,012 -95%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Jared Kushner attend Trump’s Xi summit? May 15 $201 +$16 +8%
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Ji May 15 $293 +$29 +10%
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $358 +$77 +22%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,876 +$616 +33%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $131 +$33 +25%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,002 +$18 +2%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 14 $17 −$17 -100%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 13 $394 +$6 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $3,231 +$359 +11%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 11 $360 +$114 +32%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? May 06 $1,850 −$1,672 -90%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 06 $2,459 +$1,599 +65%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 16 $4,029 −$948 -24%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 15 $2,405 +$1,241 +52%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $915 +$41 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 08 $3,047 −$2,592 -85%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Apr 08 $960 −$194 -20%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $26 +$9 +33%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Apr 08 $1,461 −$1,461 -100%
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? Apr 07 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation? Apr 07 $3 $0 +14%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 07 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nation? Apr 07 $9 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation? Apr 07 $9 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $955 23m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 16¢ $320 25m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $244 27m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 87¢ $208 41m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $800 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 82¢ $820 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $740 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 17¢ $510 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $8 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $19 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $1,772 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 20¢ $460 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $571 9h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $238 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $495 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $949 13h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $482 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 76¢ $699 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 76¢ $16 13h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 13h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $28 13h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $9 14h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $179 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,543 14h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $78 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $823 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 83¢ $833 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,151.84 · official $15,941.84 · 603 history records