trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | -8% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $5 | +$1 | +15% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $5 | +$5 | +97% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$8 | +165% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $5 | +$2 | +42% |
| LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) | Nov 03 | $20 | +$3 | +15% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Oct 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3) | Oct 25 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Sep 18 | $1,001 | −$1,001 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Sep 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +15.9% | +4.9% | 57% | 57% | +7.2% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +15.9% | +4.9% | 57% | 57% | +7.2% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +15.9% | +4.9% | 57% | 57% | +7.2% |
| all | 12 | -22.8% | -30.1% | 42% | 42% | -94.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.1% | 42% | -94.8% |
| 10% | -36.8% | 25% | -95.3% |
| 15% | -42.9% | 25% | -95.7% |
| 20% | -48.5% | 17% | -96.1% |