Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9956…0e2f crypto 422 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$133 (-2%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate67%283W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$5
14 days−$336
30 days−$336
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$310
sports 5% −$184
other 4% +$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 369 -5.1% -14.1% 67% 60% -9.4%
≤30d 422 -5.1% -14.1% 67% 59% -14.4%
≤90d 422 -5.1% -14.1% 67% 59% -14.4%
all 422 -5.1% -14.1% 67% 59% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 59% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 44% -22.6%
15% -29.8% 32% -30.1%
20% -36.7% 19% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses283 / 139
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)422 / 422
History coverage10d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 422 Trades
no open positions (130 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $27 $0 +1%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $130 −$127 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $23 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $17 +$3 +15%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $115 +$159 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $19 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $16 $0 +3%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $20 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $19 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 29 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 29 $13 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 29 $13 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 29 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 28 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 28 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 28 $32 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$3 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 17¢ $28 3h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 27¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $17 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 7h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $19 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $14 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $19 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $15 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $19 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $13 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $18 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $14 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $13 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $13 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $24 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $18 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $22 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $19 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $23 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 725 history records