Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9958…b9ac sports 797 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,411 (-4%) realized −$5,411 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%463W / 334L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$1,676est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$911
7 days−$1,642
14 days−$1,218
30 days−$2,221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$6,067
other 6% +$81
world 0% −$295
crypto 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -25.3% -32.4% 43% 40% -21.3%
≤30d 197 -13.9% -22.1% 52% 51% -14.9%
≤90d 766 -6.6% -15.5% 57% 54% -13.9%
all 797 -5.2% -14.2% 58% 55% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 55% -13.3%
10% -22.4% 51% -21.6%
15% -29.9% 45% -29.2%
20% -36.8% 34% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$150 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,411
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses463 / 334
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$1,676
Open positions0
Markets (closed)797 / 797
History coverage116d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 797 Trades
no open positions (157 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $150 +$16 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $101 +$37 +36%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$60 +59%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $198 −$153 -77%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $128 +$70 +55%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $109 −$108 -99%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $137 −$135 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $137 −$135 -99%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $102 −$101 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $133 +$69 +52%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $128 −$126 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $153 +$107 +70%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $135 −$113 -84%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $229 −$226 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $298 −$69 -23%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $148 +$98 +66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $150 −$97 -65%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $166 −$164 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $232 −$165 -71%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $203 +$155 +76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $192 +$82 +43%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $273 +$225 +82%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $81 −$80 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $185 −$109 -59%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $95 −$89 -94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $367 −$64 -17%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $335 −$330 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $128 +$43 +34%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $46 −$46 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $129 +$82 +64%
Will Bath win? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $364 −$104 -29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $246 +$118 +48%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $240 −$237 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $291 −$157 -54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $918 +$78 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $304 +$262 +86%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $276 −$273 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $304 −$15 -5%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $177 +$114 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $200 +$87 +44%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $304 −$300 -99%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $196 −$194 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $304 −$201 -66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $303 +$180 +60%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $242 +$170 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $361 +$287 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL San Diego Padres 59¢ $166 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 52¢ $150 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $148 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 84¢ $138 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $101 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $161 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $101 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $175 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $101 11h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner SELL GenOne 20¢ $45 26h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 86¢ $198 26h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic BUY Hamad Medjedovic 64¢ $128 28h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 54¢ $109 29h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 61¢ $137 29h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 58¢ $137 30h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 56¢ $100 32h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 61¢ $102 32h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner SELL ex-RUBY 100¢ $202 32h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 66¢ $127 32h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 56¢ $6 32h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato 59¢ $128 33h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $260 33h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 58¢ $153 34h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros SELL Zsombor Piros 9¢ $22 34h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 54¢ $135 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $229 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $228 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $298 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $245 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 25¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2203 history records