Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9958…a088 crypto 1023 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,399 (-5%) realized −$1,399 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%413W / 610L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$556
14 days+$790
30 days+$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,065
other 4% −$303
sports 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +8.8% -1.5% 65% 65% +3.7%
≤30d 145 -1.3% -10.7% 61% 61% -4.5%
≤90d 1023 -6.4% -15.3% 40% 38% -13.0%
all 1023 -6.4% -15.3% 40% 38% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 38% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 36% -21.3%
15% -30.8% 32% -28.9%
20% -37.6% 25% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,399
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses413 / 610
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1023 / 1023
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1023 Trades
no open positions (93 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $80 −$69 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$35 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$44 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $80 −$72 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$32 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$48 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$65 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$39 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $76 +$54 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $73 +$46 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $71 +$56 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $74 −$73 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$40 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $71 +$48 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $72 −$61 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$35 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $69 +$45 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $71 −$63 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $69 +$56 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$53 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $65 +$42 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$45 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $60 +$31 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$40 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$45 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $64 +$44 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $63 +$40 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $65 +$92 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $64 −$57 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$54 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$27 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$32 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$29 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$34 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$29 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $63 −$53 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $63 +$46 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $63 −$55 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $63 +$34 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $63 +$41 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $63 +$41 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $63 +$28 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $94 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $121 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $77 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $80 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $109 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $77 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $125 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $77 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $79 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $116 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $77 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $130 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $76 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $119 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $73 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $127 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $71 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $74 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $112 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $72 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $119 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $71 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records