Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

99 0x995e…1909 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$79 (+26%) realized +$79 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate60%12W / 8L

Drawdown26%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day10.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+6.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+17.7%	+6.5%	60%	55%	+20.7%
≤30d	20	+17.7%	+6.5%	60%	55%	+20.7%
≤90d	20	+17.7%	+6.5%	60%	55%	+20.7%
all	20	+17.7%	+6.5%	60%	55%	+20.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.5%	55%	+20.7%
10%	-3.7%	50%	+9.1%
15%	-13.0%	50%	-1.4%
20%	-21.5%	45%	-11.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +57% → late -21% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$79

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses12 / 8

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage3d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day10.2

Drawdown26%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	Jun 18	$11	−$11	-100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?	Jun 18	$27	−$7	-26%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$40	+$15	+38%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	Jun 18	$6	$0	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	Jun 18	$16	+$3	+18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$14	+$8	+60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Jun 17	$8	+$8	+97%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery	Jun 17	$20	+$22	+109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$10	+$15	+151%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman	Jun 17	$31	−$30	-98%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia	Jun 17	$30	+$18	+60%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$25	+$14	+57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$13	+$27	+206%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia	Jun 16	$10	+$17	+165%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$15	+$18	+119%
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 15	$10	−$2	-18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?	SELL Yes	8¢	$20	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5	SELL Under	100¢	$55	1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	SELL Yes	43¢	$6	1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	SELL Yes	18¢	$18	1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5	BUY Under	72¢	$40	10h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	SELL Yes	33¢	$16	10h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery	SELL Arthur Fery	100¢	$43	10h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman	BUY Ryan Seggerman	24¢	$31	14h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia	SELL Roberto Carballes Baena	99¢	$49	15h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5	BUY Under	62¢	$14	16h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia	BUY Roberto Carballes Baena	61¢	$30	16h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova	BUY Elise Mertens	34¢	$10	16h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June?	BUY Yes	10¢	$27	16h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery	BUY Arthur Fery	47¢	$20	17h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me	BUY Yes	0¢	$11	17h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	BUY Yes	41¢	$6	25h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$16	25h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5	BUY Over	63¢	$25	25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	32¢	$13	33h
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia	BUY Julia Riera	37¢	$10	33h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY	39¢	$10	36h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	BUY Yes	16¢	$8	2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	30¢	$2	2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5	BUY Over	56¢	$5	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	45¢	$15	2d
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay?	BUY No	3¢	$1	2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL No	13¢	$8	2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	14¢	$10	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records