Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:31:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
99 0x995f…e6eb other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$152 (-16%) realized −$152 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$124
14 days+$168
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$184
crypto 5% $0
sports 1% −$7
politics 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +15.8% +4.8% 45% 45% +7.5%
≤30d 12 +18.3% +7.0% 50% 50% +10.6%
≤90d 12 +18.3% +7.0% 50% 50% +10.6%
all 12 +18.3% +7.0% 50% 50% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.0% 50% +10.6%
10% -3.2% 50% +0.0%
15% -12.6% 50% -9.7%
20% -21.1% 42% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$54 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage8d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $122 +$129 +106%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$66 +129%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $267 −$125 -47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $51 +$131 +256%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$65 +128%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$60 +117%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $96 +$44 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29 BUY 32¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $251 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 64¢ $117 41h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 44h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 45h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $133 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $134 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 43¢ $51 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $110 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 6d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 28¢ $51 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $96 7d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $49.00 · 26 history records