Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:19:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
99 0x995f…9c43 sports 6 markets active 2d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$254 (+28%) realized +$254 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$182
other 40% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +24.5% +12.7% 67% 67% +13.6%
≤30d 6 +24.5% +12.7% 67% 67% +13.6%
≤90d 6 +24.5% +12.7% 67% 67% +13.6%
all 6 +24.5% +12.7% 67% 67% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.7% 67% +13.6%
10% +1.9% 50% +2.7%
15% -8.0% 33% -7.2%
20% -17.0% 17% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$4 · ×14.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.18 per $1 lost it wins $28.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$254
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $258 +$54 +21%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $182 +$81 +45%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $112 −$1 -1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $140 +$47 +33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$8 -7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $97 +$55 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $258 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $182 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 71¢ $10 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 71¢ $10 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 68¢ $101 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $102 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $187 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $140 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 39¢ $95 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $103 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 78¢ $152 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $97 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records