Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:27:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9968…e35f sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+13%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$9
other 19% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -19.7% -27.3% 32% 32% -19.1%
≤30d 41 -19.7% -27.3% 32% 32% -19.1%
≤90d 41 -19.7% -27.3% 32% 32% -19.1%
all 41 -19.7% -27.3% 32% 32% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 32% -19.1%
10% -34.3% 32% -26.8%
15% -40.6% 32% -33.9%
20% -46.4% 32% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$5 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Gavi Paez: 1+ assists Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Cucurella: 1+ assists Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Aymeric Laporte: 1+ assists Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Rodri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $7 +$7 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 +$8 +129%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $3 +$12 +388%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$7 +101%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$24 +237%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $7 +$8 +114%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $6 +$9 +140%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $7 +$7 +93%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 +$14 +226%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$5 +158%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$3 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $6 +$4 +78%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $11 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $7 2h
Pedri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $4 2h
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3h
Gavi Paez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $4 4h
Cucurella: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4h
Aymeric Laporte: 1+ assists BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4h
Rodri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $4 4h
Gavi Paez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $6 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $7 4h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $7 21h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $3 21h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 21h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $5 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $6 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $34 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 40¢ $5 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 20¢ $3 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $10 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $8 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $6 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $4 23h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $7 23h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $8 38h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 46¢ $7 39h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $6 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.68 · official $10.68 (match) · 56 history records