Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x996c…b6ec sports 259 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,293 (+8%) realized +$8,074 · open +$219
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%152W / 105L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$420per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$488est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$651now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,245
7 days+$3,292
14 days+$5,623
30 days+$8,710
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$6,652
crypto 4% +$350
other 2% +$617
world 2% +$136
tech 1% +$334
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +13.5% +2.7% 74% 68% +3.0%
≤30d 73 +13.2% +2.4% 75% 68% +4.1%
≤90d 132 +3.3% -6.6% 68% 61% +1.6%
all 257 -0.3% -9.8% 59% 54% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 54% -2.9%
10% -18.4% 42% -12.2%
15% -26.3% 32% -20.7%
20% -33.5% 21% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$650) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$156 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$651
Realized+$8,074
Unrealized+$219
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses152 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$488
Open positions2
Markets (closed)257 / 259
History coverage176d
Avg bet$420
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $332 $387 +$55 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 25¢ 66¢ $100 $264 +$164 (+164%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $557 +$443 +79%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $547 +$453 +83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $650 +$350 +54%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $733 −$726 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $627 +$373 +60%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $440 +$560 +127%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $509 +$74 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4,611 +$389 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1,620 +$380 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $567 −$560 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $183 −$81 -44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,572 −$128 -4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $637 +$363 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $795 +$205 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $756 +$244 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $32 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5,240 +$760 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $893 +$106 +12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $880 +$119 +14%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $451 +$549 +122%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $736 +$264 +36%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $746 +$254 +34%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $606 +$394 +65%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $142 +$58 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,825 +$175 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $806 +$361 +45%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,340 +$617 +46%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $750 −$750 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $79 −$78 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $412 +$88 +21%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $723 −$45 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $295 +$204 +69%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $900 +$100 +11%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $696 +$304 +44%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $942 +$58 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $736 +$264 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $900 +$100 +11%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $537 −$530 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $279 +$221 +79%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $244 +$256 +105%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $427 −$420 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $842 +$178 +21%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $82 +$28 +34%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $3,040 +$960 +32%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $692 −$690 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $696 +$304 +44%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $706 +$294 +42%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $880 +$120 +14%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1,233 +$143 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 25¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $557 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $547 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $650 41h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $733 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 62¢ $627 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 44¢ $46 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 44¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 44¢ $387 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 92¢ $4,611 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 88¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 88¢ $262 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 88¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 88¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 88¢ $195 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $567 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 75¢ $28 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 81¢ $397 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 81¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 81¢ $1,092 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 81¢ $85 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 81¢ $41 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 21¢ $103 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 36¢ $183 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 36¢ $274 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 42¢ $32 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 89¢ $3,572 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 63¢ $637 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 79¢ $795 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 31¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $650.92 · official $650.92 (match) · 971 history records