Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9972…b990 crypto 429 markets active 16h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-1%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate76%324W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$29
14 days−$62
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$21
politics 19% −$3
other 13% +$3
sports 13% −$47
world 8% −$3
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -41.3% -46.9% 29% 14% -47.2%
≤30d 40 -22.0% -29.4% 60% 22% -23.3%
≤90d 195 -4.7% -13.8% 89% 5% -12.2%
all 428 -3.2% -12.4% 76% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 3% -10.5%
10% -20.8% 1% -19.1%
15% -28.4% 1% -26.9%
20% -35.4% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses324 / 104
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)428 / 429
History coverage142d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 54¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $18 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $6 −$5 -98%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $16 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $5 +$2 +46%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $10 +$5 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $11 +$1 +11%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 09 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 07 $9 +$15 +165%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $5 +$1 +20%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 159.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: PortlandFire (-3.5) Jun 06 $5 +$2 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $17 −$11 -66%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-19? Jun 01 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1AM ET May 30 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET May 28 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET May 27 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6AM ET May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 20 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3AM ET May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5PM ET May 18 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11PM ET May 17 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET May 16 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 27¢ $7 16h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 26¢ $3 16h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $10 34h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 60¢ $5 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 63¢ $5 4d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 86¢ $10 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $6 4d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $8 4d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL No 80¢ $5 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 6d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $9 6d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $10 6d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 68¢ $5 7d
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 75¢ $5 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 84¢ $5 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 7d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 63¢ $10 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 90¢ $1 8d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 90¢ $10 8d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 51¢ $6 8d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 47¢ $6 9d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 55¢ $8 9d
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay BUY No 83¢ $5 10d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 37¢ $9 10d
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $5 10d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 83¢ $5 10d
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 159.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 12d
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 159.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 BUY Over 51¢ $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.02 · official $7.02 (match) · 2033 history records