Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9977…abc9 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$4
world 27% −$2
politics 27% −$1
economics 5% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.3% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.8%
≤30d 13 -7.4% -16.2% 38% 8% -9.8%
≤90d 13 -7.4% -16.2% 38% 8% -9.8%
all 46 -2.6% -11.9% 28% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 2% -10.1%
10% -20.3% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage330d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $6 $0 +5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $32 −$6 -18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $17 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $46 +$2 +4%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $40 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 24 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $27 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 04 $19 $0 -1%
Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025? Aug 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2025 Wyndham Championship? Aug 03 $32 −$3 -9%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 03 $47 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025? Aug 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Aug 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 31 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 31 $62 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Cole Palmer win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 29 $64 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $52 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 21h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $0 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $23 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $13 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 22¢ $6 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 25¢ $22 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $32 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $32 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $30 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $30 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $5 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $7 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $4 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $7 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $10 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $9 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $32 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $6 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $46 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $6 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $9 11d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $3 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.46 · official $52.46 (match) · 251 history records