Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:25:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x9978…7132 other 83 markets active 7d ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,652 (+4%) realized +$1,656 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate87%65W / 10L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$485per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$3,491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% +$11
crypto 28% +$19
other 22% +$9
sports 5% +$1,592
economics 4% +$9
world 1% +$1
tech 1% +$2
finance 0% +$11
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 +0.3% -9.3% 92% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 39 +1.0% -8.6% 95% 3% -9.4%
all 75 +0.5% -9.1% 87% 11% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 11% -5.4%
10% -17.8% 8% -14.5%
15% -25.7% 5% -22.7%
20% -33.0% 4% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$1,033) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$54 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.83 per $1 lost it wins $4.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$3,491
Realized+$1,656
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses65 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)75 / 83
History coverage143d
Avg bet$485
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,700 $2,701 +$1 (+0%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $586 $587 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $109 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? No 74¢ 97¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+31%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-75%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $202 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $32 $0 +1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,433 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,043 +$1 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,065 +$1 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $90 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $2,012 +$1 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $51 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $25 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kanye West have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,005 +$1 +0%
Cerebras IPO before 2027? May 16 $44 +$7 +16%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026? May 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 16 $167 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 16 $1,554 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 16 $1,669 +$2 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 25 $1,056 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2,397 +$2 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $2,243 +$2 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 16 $124 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 12 $162 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 12 $10 $0 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 12 $11 +$1 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Apr 12 $24 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Apr 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by March 31, 2026? Apr 12 $61 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 12 $86 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 12 $95 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 12 $1,007 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 12 $1,101 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of March? Apr 12 $1,211 +$1 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $1,115 +$1 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 22 $1,204 +$1 +0%
Hornets vs. Spurs Mar 22 $9 +$5 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 22 $115 $0 +0%
Avalanche vs. Jets Mar 22 $1,217 +$1,985 +163%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Mar 19 $199 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 05 $1,451 +$4 +0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $76 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Clippers vs. Warriors Mar 02 $386 −$386 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $203 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $2,700 8d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $202 8d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 8d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $586 8d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $90 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 15d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $63 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $83 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $505 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $224 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,490.71 · official $3,490.71 (match) · 338 history records