Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:55:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x997a…4cbe other 1146 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,008 (-2%) realized −$1,008 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate28%319W / 816L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day55.1pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$340
7 days−$314
14 days−$293
30 days−$591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$1,074
sports 22% −$28
world 8% −$13
economics 8% −$12
weather 1% −$33
tech 1% −$51
crypto 1% +$11
politics 1% −$72
finance 1% −$35
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 259 -12.6% -20.9% 8% 6% -19.3%
≤30d 557 -14.9% -23.0% 17% 10% -17.1%
≤90d 1135 -10.9% -19.4% 28% 16% -11.7%
all 1135 -10.9% -19.4% 28% 16% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 16% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 13% -20.1%
15% -34.2% 8% -27.8%
20% -40.6% 5% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$1,008
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses319 / 816
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1135 / 1146
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day55.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 65¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No 65¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 75¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $17 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? Jun 16 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? Jun 16 $0 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 16 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? Jun 16 $18 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Jun 16 $8 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? Jun 16 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? Jun 16 $19 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? Jun 16 $3 $0 -10%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18? Jun 16 $0 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 18? Jun 16 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 18? Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 18? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 18? Jun 16 $3 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 18? Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Jun 16 $4 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 18? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -46%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by June 30? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 18? Jun 16 $17 $0 -1%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by June 30? Jun 16 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $18 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18? Jun 16 $1 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 16 $4 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 18? Jun 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 16 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 18? Jun 16 $17 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18? Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 18? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Jun 16 $2 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? Jun 16 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Jun 16 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18? Jun 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? Jun 16 $17 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Jun 16 $11 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 74¢ $15 7m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 74¢ $15 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 81¢ $4 9m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 9m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $4 10m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 82¢ $16 11m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 85¢ $17 12m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 76¢ $15 22m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $15 24m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 37¢ $7 27m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 28m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 41m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 87¢ $17 45m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $18 46m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 47m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 84¢ $8 48m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $8 48m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 49m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 79¢ $16 49m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $17 50m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 55m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 55m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 55m
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 18? SELL No 73¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 66¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 88¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.02 · official $217.02 · 3500 history records