Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9981…dec4 sports 323 markets active 17d ago coverage 202d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 202d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$198,805 (+12%) realized +$191,477 · open +$7,328
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate76%263W / 82L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,212per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$259est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$58,686now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 202d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$34,351
finance 12% +$22,443
crypto 10% +$31,744
culture 7% +$17,240
other 5% +$5,369
world 4% −$37,264
politics 2% +$3,639
tech 0% +$38,383
economics 0% +$215
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -95.9% -96.3% 0% 0% -98.1%
≤30d 30 -85.2% -86.6% 10% 3% -81.5%
≤90d 59 -44.4% -49.7% 47% 27% -35.5%
all 345 -2.7% -12.0% 76% 45% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 45% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 25% -18.8%
15% -28.1% 13% -26.6%
20% -35.1% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$5,615) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,190 vs −$4,055 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$58,686
Realized+$191,477
Unrealized+$7,328
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses263 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$259
Open positions4
Markets (closed)345 / 323
History coverage202d ⚠
Avg bet$5,212
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 87¢ 100¢ $18,249 $21,009 +$2,760 (+15%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 92¢ 100¢ $16,714 $18,159 +$1,444 (+9%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 83¢ 100¢ $8,739 $10,490 +$1,751 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 84¢ 100¢ $7,656 $9,028 +$1,373 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lakers vs. Suns Jun 29 $3,598 −$3,598 -100%
Phillies vs. White Sox Jun 29 $1,403 −$1,403 -100%
Northwestern vs. Penn State Jun 29 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-10-10? Jun 29 $1,720 −$1,720 -100%
Jaguars vs. Texans Jun 29 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Florida State vs. Virginia Jun 29 $780 −$780 -100%
Red Sox vs. Twins Jun 29 $1,740 −$1,740 -100%
Rams vs. Eagles Jun 29 $1,063 −$1,063 -100%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 29 $3,469 −$1,222 -35%
Rolex Paris Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie Jun 29 $8,275 −$8,275 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October? Jun 29 $15,110 −$15,110 -100%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Jun 29 $2,508 −$2,508 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Jun 29 $2,760 −$2,760 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November? Jun 29 $19,260 −$19,260 -100%
Ravens vs. Bills Jun 29 $2,640 −$2,640 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Blues Jun 29 $4,140 −$4,140 -100%
Dolphins vs. Panthers Jun 29 $4,648 −$4,648 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2025-10-14? Jun 29 $891 −$891 -100%
Reds vs. Athletics Jun 29 $252 −$252 -100%
Broncos vs. Eagles Jun 29 $11,095 −$11,095 -100%
Louisville vs. Miami Jun 29 $4,936 −$7,368 -149%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 29 $14,485 −$14,485 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November? Jun 29 $4,557 −$4,557 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $108k in October? Jun 29 $10,302 −$10,302 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Jun 29 $1,070 −$611 -57%
Will Bitcoin dip to $106k in October? Jun 29 $3,240 −$3,240 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $19,521 −$19,521 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $4,121 +$1,079 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $16,704 +$1,347 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $10,212 +$350 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $13,729 −$13,729 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 29 $3,625 +$111 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $7,053 −$7,020 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $31,293 +$3,143 +10%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $12,521 +$1,350 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $5,815 +$735 +13%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 27 $8,613 −$4,962 -58%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 27 $16,252 +$2,040 +13%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $3,184 +$1,201 +38%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $9,806 +$194 +2%
Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream May 23 $5,299 +$341 +6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $3,390 +$107 +3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 16 $14,401 +$1,581 +11%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $9,107 +$2,753 +30%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $6,681 −$6,644 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $6,874 +$126 +2%
Will Incheon United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $2,223 +$414 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? May 01 $5,983 +$1,007 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $17,368 +$2,060 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $14,400 +$557 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $6,097 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $3,130 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $210 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $262 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $252 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $42 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $252 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $25 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $26 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $9,224 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $772 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $59 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $4,253 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $4,145 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $1,760 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $2,640 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $1 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $4 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $0 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $3 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $0 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $0 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $0 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $7 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $0 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $1 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $0 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $7 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $15 21d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 88¢ $13 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58,685.95 · official $58,685.95 (match) · 3500 history records