Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x9981…a3e8 crypto 216 markets active 4d ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$118 (-10%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%106W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$83
14 days−$114
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$68
other 22% −$63
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -17.7% -25.5% 27% 9% -30.2%
≤30d 215 -21.1% -28.6% 49% 45% -19.4%
≤90d 216 -21.0% -28.6% 49% 45% -19.3%
all 216 -21.0% -28.6% 49% 45% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 45% -19.3%
10% -35.4% 37% -27.1%
15% -41.6% 16% -34.1%
20% -47.4% 12% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses106 / 110
Open positions0
Markets (closed)216 / 216
History coverage32d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 216 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $29 −$9 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $25 +$5 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $79 −$54 -68%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $89 −$10 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $83 +$6 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$7 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$11 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $40 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +40%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 07 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $27 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $30 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $13 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $25 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $79 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $14 4d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? SELL No 63¢ $12 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 4d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $9 4d
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $4 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $80 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $55 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $34 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $89 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $83 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $4 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 548 history records