Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x9987…7362 other 50 markets active 1d ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%26W / 24L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 28% +$2
politics 17% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 15 +0.3% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 15 +0.3% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.9%
all 50 +2.3% -7.4% 52% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 4% -9.3%
10% -16.3% 4% -18.0%
15% -24.4% 2% -25.9%
20% -31.8% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses26 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage452d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $29 −$1 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $30 −$2 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $30 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 05 $15 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30? Jun 01 $15 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea elec May 30 $15 $0 -1%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers be Eastern Conference champions? May 25 $2 $0 +25%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? May 25 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 73°F or higher on May 24? May 24 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? May 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 10 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $3 $0 +5%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April? May 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 07 $12 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kenny Atkinson win NBA Coach of the Year? Apr 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $7 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $1 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 71¢ $28 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $28 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 71¢ $29 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $32 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $32 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $26 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $9 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $18 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $30 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records